Analysis of Sustainability and Strategy Development of Mandalika Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Based on Scenario Planning

Abstract

Since becoming a Special Economic Zone (SEZ), the development of the Mandalika area has been increasingly aggressive, marked by the rapid development of connecting infrastructure in the form of road access, the construction of a sports tourism area, namely the Mandalika International Street Circuit and hotel and homestay accommodation as tourism support. But in reality, the development of Mandalika SEZ is faced with various problems such as potential conflicts, cultural influences, ecological impacts such as flooding, lack of local community involvement, lack of investors, multiple actors involved with different influences, and negative impacts from foreign investors' investments. These conditions pose a threat to the sustainability of Mandalika SEZ. The scenario planning approach is the answer to uncertainty conditions that are increasingly echoing making decision makers need a new approach that is better able to accommodate complexity and uncertainty in the development of Mandalika SEZ so that they can prepare to face it. This study aims to provide an overview of scenarios in the development of Mandalika SEZ ranging from the best to the worst, so that strategies can be formulated as a preventive effort to maintain the sustainability of Mandalika SEZ. The research method uses qualitative with a case study approach, with the analysis method using the TAID method, namely tracking, analyzing, imaging and deciding. The results showed that there are two things that most influence the development of Mandalika SEZ, namely Capital (Funds and Investors) and Synergy between stakeholders (Central Government, Provincial Government, Central Lombok Regional Government and ITDC). Then produce four scenarios of Mandalika SEZ tourism conditions in the next decade, namely: (1) Mandalika Bersinar, (2) Mandalika Redup, (3) Mandalika Terbenam, and (4) Mandalika Terbit.