Modeling Competitive Fresh Fruit Bunch Price Dynamics Using A Predator-Prey Industrial Ecology Framework: Evidence from Nagan Raya Aceh

Yenny Suzana, Budi Irwansyah, Mohd Afifi Bahurudin Setambah, Suparni Suparni, Almira Amir, Iyana Maulida

Abstract


This study develops a logistic predator-prey model to describe the short-term interactions between the market conditions for Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) and the competitive activities of Palm Oil Mills (POMs) in Nagan Raya, Aceh.  Weekly fresh fruit bunch (FFB) price data from January through April 2025 were used. The calibrated model is able to reproduce the main temporal patterns of the normalized FFB dynamics, indicating that the proposed nonlinear interaction structure provides a reasonable representation of the observed system. The threshold analysis also shows that the POMs’s sustainability depends on the balance between the POMs’s response to FFB resources and the rate of decline in activity. Transcritical bifurcation provides a useful mathematical interpretation of how changes in competitive responses can shift the system between regimes of non-coexistence and sustained coexistence. These findings suggest that the proposed framework can serve as a mathematical tool for analyzing the interrelated dynamics of resource competition within the local palm oil industry.

Keywords


Fresh fruit bunch; price dynamics; palm oil mills; predator–prey model; industrial ecology; competition intensity

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References


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