Predicting East Kalimantan Population Growth with Holt's Exponential Smoothing Approach: A Time Series Analysis

Alfiana Sahraini, Syaharuddin Syaharuddin, Vera Mandailina

Abstract


Abstract: This research is important because as a province that is the location of the relocation of the National Capital, East Kalimantan will experience a significant population surge. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide an overview of population projections that can be used as a basis for regional development planning, especially in the context of East Kalimantan's preparation as the location of the National Capital City (IKN). This research is an experiment to forecast population growth data for the next 5 years based on actual data 2014-2023. The data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The results show that the population is expected to continue to increase gradually from 2025 to 2029 with a stable growth trend and excellent model accuracy (MAPE 0.50%).  The implications of the results of this study can be used as a reference for other researchers in developing time series-based prediction models in the population field or other fields that have data trend patterns.

Keywords


Population Growth, Holt's Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Analysis.

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References


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