The Role of Holt-Winters Method in Mining Sector Forecasting: Empirical Study in NTB Province 2015-2024

Meli Anggriyani, Syaharuddin Syaharuddin, Vera Mandailina

Abstract


Abstract: This research is important because the mining and atmosphere sector has a strategic contribution to the regional economy, especially in West Nusa Tenggara Province, but in recent years it has experienced a significant neck. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze historical trends and predict the value of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the mining and preference sector for the next five years in order to provide a more accurate and adaptive basis for regional economic development planning. This research is an experiment to forecast quarterly GRDP data for the period 2025-2029 based on actual data from 2015-2024. The data is taken from the official publication of the Central Bureau of Statistics of West Nusa Tenggara Province. The method used is Triple Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winters Additive), which is able to capture trend and seasonal patterns in time series data. Data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The results showed that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value obtained was 5807.79% which indicates that the accuracy of the model is in the good category and can be relied upon for economic planning needs. The implication of the research results is that local governments need to formulate policy strategies that not only focus on optimizing active mining production, but also encourage economic diversification, revitalize inactive mines, strengthen downstream industries, and improve sectoral data systems. Thus, the results of this prediction are expected to be used as a reference in elaborating regional development policies that are more responsive to the dynamics of the mining sector and macroeconomic conditions in general.

Keywords


Holt-Winters Method, Time Series Forecasting, Mining Sector.

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References


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