The Use of Simple Exponential Smoothing in Predicting Economic Growth Trends

Adelia Nurul Khotimah, Syaharuddin Syaharuddin, Vera Mandailina

Abstract


Abstract: This research is important because economic growth is a key indicator in assessing a country's macroeconomic performance, and accurate prediction of its growth trend is necessary for medium- and long-term economic policy planning. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of the *Simple Exponential Smoothing* (SES) method in predicting Indonesia's economic growth trend. This research is an experiment to forecast economic growth for the next five years based on actual data for the period 2015-2024. The data is obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The results show that the SES method is able to describe the trend of economic growth quite stably, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 5.82%, which indicates a good level of accuracy in the context of macroeconomic forecasting. The implication of the results of this study is that the SES method can be used as a simple but reliable tool for the government and policy makers in projecting national economic growth and in developing development strategies that are more adaptive to changes in economic dynamics.

Keywords


Economic Growth, Forecasting, Simple Exponential Smoothing.

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References


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