The Role of Markov Chain Method in Predicting Electricity and Gas Procurement: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

Nurwahidah Nurwahidah, Syaharuddin Syaharuddin, Vera Mandailina

Abstract


Abstract: This study aims to forecast electricity and gas procurement in Indonesia for the period 2025-2029 using the Markov Chain method. Historical data from 2015 to 2024 shows a steady upward trend in energy procurement, with no significant fluctuations. The forecasting results show a consistent upward trend, with the predicted procurement value increasing from 1628 units in 2025 to 1776 units in 2029. The mathematical model used has a high level of accuracy, with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) value of 53.0000 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.45%. The findings show that national energy demand is expected to continue to grow, along with economic and population growth. Based on these results, it is recommended to strengthen energy infrastructure, develop renewable energy sources, improve energy efficiency, and develop long-term energy policies based on predictive data to ensure the sustainability of energy supply in the future.

 


Keywords


Markov Chain Method, Electricity And Gas Procurement, Empirical Study.

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References


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