Prediction of Farmer Exchange Rate in NTB Province Using Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs): A Time Series Model for Agricultural Development Planning

Muhammad Riz Ulfiandy, Syaharuddin Syaharuddin, Vera Mandailina

Abstract


Abstract: This research is important because the Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP) is a key indicator of farmer welfare and agricultural sector stability in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to build an NTP forecasting model using the Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) method to produce predictions for the next five years with a high level of accuracy. This research is an experiment to forecast NTP data for the period 2025 to 2029 based on actual data from 2015-2024. The data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The results showed that the GRU model was able to predict the NTP value with a good level of accuracy, indicated by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 1.38%. The implication of the results of this study is that the GRU model can be used as a tool in policy planning in the agricultural sector, especially in anticipating fluctuations in farmer exchange rates that have an impact on the welfare of rural communities.

Keywords


Farmer Exchange Rate, Gated Recurrent Units, Time Series Forecasting.

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References


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