Mathematical Modeling of Foot and Mouth Disease Spread on Livestock using Saturated Incidence Rate

Imam Fahcruddin; Joko Harianto; Denny Fitrial

doi:10.31764/jtam.v7i1.10264

Mathematical Modeling of Foot and Mouth Disease Spread on Livestock using Saturated Incidence Rate

Imam Fahcruddin, Joko Harianto, Denny Fitrial

Abstract

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is an acute infectious disease that attacks livestock, thus threatening the availability of food and the husbandry industry. This paper discusses the formulation of a mathematical model for the spread of FMD in livestock with a saturated incidence rate. The research method used is quantitative mathematical modeling with simulation, with stages including problem identification, determining assumptions, model formulation, analysis and model simulation. The discussion results obtained two equilibrium points, namely the non-endemic equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point, and then analyzed for stability. Numerical simulation is presented using Runge-Kutta approximation with MATLAB. Furthermore, after a sensitivity analysis, the parameters that greatly influenced the spread of FMD were direct or indirect contact (which led to the entry of the FMD virus) and the supporting capacity of livestock. Then the most influential parameter in reducing the spread of FMD is the application of culling on exposed animals and infected animals. The FMD modeling is a form of mathematical application to simulate the spread of disease on livestock.

Keywords

Foot and mouth disease (FMD); Mathematical model; Saturated incidence rate; Stability.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v7i1.10264