A Daily Transition Analysis of Disaster Events in Riau Islands using Markov Chains: Dominant Disaster Identification  and Risk Assessment

Nahrul Hayati; Andini Setyo Anggraeni; Eko Sulistyono

doi:10.31764/jtam.v10i1.34024

A Daily Transition Analysis of Disaster Events in Riau Islands using Markov Chains: Dominant Disaster Identification and Risk Assessment

Nahrul Hayati, Andini Setyo Anggraeni, Eko Sulistyono

Abstract

Objectives: This study employs a Markov Chain approach to analyze daily disaster transition patterns in the Riau Islands, with the primary objectives of identifying dominant hazards, quantifying long-term disaster risks, and providing evidence-based recommendations for disaster management. Methods: The research utilized daily disaster records from Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) for 2024. A dominant state classification approach was applied to handle days with multiple disaster occurrences, followed by the construction of a transition probability matrix and steady-state analysis to determine long-term disaster distribution. Results: The analysis reveals that no disaster conditions represent the most prevalent state in the region. Among actual disasters, wildfires demonstrate the highest persistence, followed by extreme weather events, floods, and landslides. The transition patterns indicate that most disasters occur as isolated events rather than consecutive sequences, though wildfires show a tendency for temporal clustering. Conclusion: The study provides two key contributions. Methodologically, it demonstrates an effective approach for simplifying complex multi disaster daily data. Practically, it offers scientific evidence for prioritizing wildfire management in the Riau Islands while maintaining preparedness for other episodic disasters. These findings support the development of targeted early warning systems and resource allocation strategies for local disaster management agencies.

Keywords

Daily Transition; Disaster; Markov Chain; Riau Islands.

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References

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v10i1.34024