Simple Forward Finite Difference for Computing Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Indonesia During the New Normal

Suryasatriya Trihandaru; Hanna Arini Parhusip; Bambang Susanto; Yohanes Sardjono

doi:10.31764/jtam.v5i1.3468

Simple Forward Finite Difference for Computing Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Indonesia During the New Normal

Suryasatriya Trihandaru, Hanna Arini Parhusip, Bambang Susanto, Yohanes Sardjono

Abstract

The research purpose shown in this article is describing the time dependent reproduction number of coronavirus called by COVID-19 in the new normal period for 3 types areas, i.e. small, medium and global areas by considering the number of people in these areas. It is known that in early June 2020, Indonesia has claimed to open activities during the pandemic with the new normal system. Though the number of COVID-19 cases is still increasing in almost infected areas, normal activities are coming back with healty care protocols where public areas are opened as usual with certain restrictions. In order to have observations of spreading impact of COVID-19, the basic reproduction number (Ro) i.e. the reproduction number (Ro) is the ratio between 2 parameters of SIR model where SIR stands for Susceptible individuals, Infected individuals, and Recovered individuals respectively. The reproduction numbers are computed as discrete values depending on time. The used research method is finite difference scheme for computing rate of change parameters in SIR models based on the COVID-19 cases in Indonesia (global area), Jakarta (medium area) and Salatiga (small area) by considering the number of people in these areas respectively. The simple forward finite difference is employed to the SIR model to have time dependent of parameters. The second approach is using the governing linear system to obtain the values of parameter daily. These parameters are computed for each day such that the values of Ro are obtained as function of time. The research result shows that 3 types areas give the same profiles of parameters that the rate of changes of reproduction numbers are decreasing with respect to time. This concludes that the reproduction numbers are most likely decreasing.

Keywords

COVID-19; finite difference; reproduction number; time dependent.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v5i1.3468