Forecasting Maximum Water Level Data for Post  Sangkuliman using An Artificial Neural Network  Backpropagation Algorithm

Mislan Mislan; Andrea Tri Rian Dani

doi:10.31764/jtam.v8i2.20112

Forecasting Maximum Water Level Data for Post Sangkuliman using An Artificial Neural Network Backpropagation Algorithm

Mislan Mislan, Andrea Tri Rian Dani

Abstract

Neural Network (NN) is an information processing system that has characteristics similar to biological neural networks. One of the algorithms in NN is Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN). BPNN is an excellent method for dealing with complex pattern recognition problems. In this research, maximum water level forecasting was carried out at Sangkuliman Post using a Backpropagation Neural Network. This research aims to obtain modeling for forecasting maximum water level, as well as forecasting results using the best model. The research results show that the best model is five neurons in hidden layer 1 and 3 neurons in hidden layer 2 with the backpropagation algorithm, the activation function used is binary sigmoid, the learning rate is 0.001, and the maximum iteration is 10,000,000 with the smallest RMSE result being 1.816. The forecast results for the following 12 periods are 1.672, 1.779, 1.523, 1.271, 1.752, 1.692, 1.335, 1.479, 1.750, 1.779, 1.340, 1.269, and 1.754. Forecasting results can be used by various parties in decision-making and planning in multiple fields, as an example to see the patterns of biological and vegetable life around Sangkuliman Post. Based of forecasting results, certain months show an increase in maximum water levels.

Keywords

Neural Network; Backpropagation Neural Network; Forecasting; Root Mean Square Error.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v8i2.20112