Mathematical Modeling and Computational Simulation of Stunting Dynamics under Sanitation and Nutritional Influence

Rommi Kaestria; Elok Faiqotul Himmah

doi:10.31764/jtam.v10i4.39901

Mathematical Modeling and Computational Simulation of Stunting Dynamics under Sanitation and Nutritional Influence

Rommi Kaestria, Elok Faiqotul Himmah

Abstract

Stunting remains a major health issue in Central Kalimantan due to poor nutrition and sanitation. While previous mathematical models have largely focused on the direct impact of nutrition intervention, they often neglect the crucial influence of environmental sanitation, creating a gap in accurately describing stunting dynamic. To address this, this study develops a new mathematical model by integrating environmental sanitation (San) parameter into a system of ordinary differential equation (ODE). Utilizing an applied mathematical modeling approach, the model parameters were estimated using 2022 baseline data primarily sourced from the Provincial Health Office, Bapperida, and TPPS, while toddler birth and mortality rates were obtained from the Central Kalimantan Statistics Agency (BPS). This sanitation parameter mathematically contributes as a multiplier that modifies the transition rate of at risk toddlers and the overall effectiveness of nutrition intervention. After identifying the equilibrium points and proving their local stability using the Routh-Hurwitz Criteria, we conducted an analytical sensitivity analysis to find the most critical factors. We then ran numerical simulations using the Runge-Kutta 4(5) method in Python to project future trends. The simulations compared the current sanitation level with a scenario where sanitation improves by 20%. The computational results reveals that combining nutritional interventions with a 20% sanitation improvement drastically accelerates stunting reduction and potentially lowering the prevalence to 0.99% within twenty years. Therefore, nutritional programs must be supported by basic sanitation infrastructure improvements to effectively eradicate childhood stunting.

Keywords

Computational Simulation; Environmental Sanitation; Mathematical Modeling; Nutritional Intervention; Python; Stunting.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v10i4.39901