Dependency Model of the Exchange Rate with the Volume Export of Mining Products in Indonesia Using Copula

Kurniadi Rizki; Retno Budiarti; I Gusti Putu Purnaba

doi:10.31764/jtam.v8i4.23089

Dependency Model of the Exchange Rate with the Volume Export of Mining Products in Indonesia Using Copula

Kurniadi Rizki, Retno Budiarti, I Gusti Putu Purnaba

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the dependence of the IDR-USD exchange rate on the volume of mining exports in Indonesia using the copula approach. This dependence is important to understand considering that the exchange rate and mineral exports have a direct impact on the country's economy which depends on foreign exchange from this sector. Mineral exports are one of the country's main sources of foreign exchange, while the exchange rate influences the competitiveness of exports on the international market. The mining products taken are iron and steel, copper and nickel, which are Indonesia's leading commodities. The copula method was chosen because of its ability to capture and model non-linear dependencies between variables, without considering the distribution of each variable. Copula makes it possible to model the marginal distribution of exchange rates and export volumes separately from their dependency structures, which is in line with the complex and dynamic nature of the Indonesian mining sector economy. The results show that there is no significant dependence between the exchange rate and the volume of commodity exports taken. Therefore, this commodity export volume policy will not have a significant effect on fluctuations in the IDR-USD exchange rate and vice versa. This article can be a recommendation for exporters to understand that export volumes do not need to pay attention to exchange rate fluctuations.

Keywords

Dependency; Export Volume; Exchange Rate; Copula.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31764/jtam.v8i4.23089